The relationship between Turkey and the West has been a cornerstone of geopolitical stability for decades, bridging Europe and Asia both geographically and diplomatically. However, in recent years, this crucial partnership has been strained by the policies and rhetoric of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leading many Western policymakers to question the future of this alliance.
This analysis argues that despite the challenges posed by Erdogan's leadership, the West must look beyond the current administration and maintain a long-term, strategic approach to engaging with Turkey.
Turkey's unique position as a NATO member with a predominantly Muslim population, its control over key waterways, and its role in managing migration flows make it an indispensable partner for the West.
Moreover, Turkey's domestic political landscape is complex and dynamic, with a vibrant civil society and opposition movements that represent alternative visions for the country's future. By focusing solely on Erdogan and his policies, the West risks overlooking these important facets of Turkish society and politics, potentially missing opportunities for constructive engagement and influence.
This paper will examine the multifaceted nature of Turkey-West relations, analyzing the strategic importance of maintaining strong ties, the challenges posed by current disagreements, and potential strategies for engagement that look beyond the personality and policies of President Erdogan.
By adopting a more nuanced and forward-looking approach, the West can better position itself to influence positive developments in Turkey and secure long-term regional stability and cooperation.
II. Background
A. Brief history of Turkey's relationship with the West
Turkey's relationship with the West has deep historical roots, dating back to the Ottoman Empire's interactions with European powers.
The modern foundation of this relationship, however, was laid in the aftermath of World War II. In 1952, Turkey joined NATO, cementing its position as a key Western ally in the Cold War.
This alliance was driven by shared security interests, particularly in containing Soviet influence in the region.
Throughout the second half of the 20th century, Turkey consistently aligned itself with the West, participating in NATO operations and seeking closer ties with European institutions. The country formally applied for full membership in the European Economic Community (predecessor to the EU) in 1987, beginning a long and complex accession process that continues to this day.
Despite this alignment, Turkey's relationship with the West has not been without tensions. Issues such as the Cyprus conflict, human rights concerns, and periodic military interventions in Turkish politics have caused friction.
Nevertheless, the overall trajectory was one of increasing integration and cooperation.
B. Rise of Erdogan and the AKP
The political landscape in Turkey underwent significant changes with the rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the early 2000s.
Erdogan first came to prominence as the mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, representing the Islamist Welfare Party.
After the party was banned for violating Turkey's secular principles, Erdogan co-founded the AKP in 2001, positioning it as a moderate conservative party with Islamic roots.
The AKP's electoral victory in 2002 marked the beginning of a new era in Turkish politics. Initially, Erdogan's government pursued a pro-Western agenda, accelerating economic reforms, advancing Turkey's EU candidacy, and implementing democratic reforms.
This period saw improved relations with the West, with Turkey being hailed as a model of compatibility between Islam and democracy.
However, as Erdogan consolidated power, his governance style became increasingly authoritarian. Key milestones in this shift include:
The 2010 constitutional referendum, which increased government control over the judiciary
The suppression of the Gezi Park protests in 2013
The crackdown following the failed coup attempt in 2016
The 2017 constitutional referendum, which transformed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system
These developments have led to growing concerns in the West about Turkey's democratic backsliding and human rights record.
C. Current state of Turkey-West relations
As of 2024, relations between Turkey and the West are characterized by a complex mix of cooperation and conflict.
Several key issues have strained the relationship:
Democratic backsliding and human rights concerns: Western governments and institutions have repeatedly criticized Erdogan's government for its crackdown on opposition figures, journalists, and civil society organizations.
Foreign policy divergences: Turkey's actions in Syria, particularly regarding Kurdish forces, have put it at odds with its NATO allies.
Additionally, Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 missile systems has led to its exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program and U.S. sanctions.
Eastern Mediterranean disputes: Turkey's assertive actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, including maritime boundary disputes with Greece and Cyprus, have heightened tensions with the EU.
Migration management: While the EU-Turkey deal on managing refugee flows remains in place, it has been a source of ongoing negotiations and occasional threats from both sides.
Economic challenges: Turkey's economic difficulties, including high inflation and currency depreciation, have impacted its relations with Western financial institutions and investors.
Despite these tensions, Turkey remains a NATO member and a candidate for EU membership.
Cooperation continues in areas such as counterterrorism, trade, and energy. However, the overall trajectory of the relationship has become increasingly uncertain, with some observers questioning Turkey's long-term orientation towards the West.
This complex backdrop sets the stage for our analysis of why and how the West should engage with Turkey beyond the Erdogan era, considering both the strategic imperatives and the challenges involved in this crucial relationship.
Turkey's strategic importance to the West cannot be overstated, and it forms the cornerstone of the argument for maintaining and deepening engagement despite current tensions with the Erdogan government.
This importance is manifested in several key areas:
Geopolitical Position: Turkey's unique geographic location as a bridge between Europe and Asia gives it unparalleled strategic value.
It controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, crucial waterways connecting the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.
This position allows Turkey to influence regional dynamics in the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, Turkey's location makes it a critical energy hub, with several major oil and gas pipelines passing through its territory.
The country's role in energy transit routes from the Caspian and Central Asian regions to Europe underscores its importance in global energy security.
NATO Membership: As the second-largest military force in NATO, Turkey plays a vital role in the alliance's southern flank. Its strategic location allows NATO to project power into regions of critical importance, including the Black Sea, the Mediterranean, and the Middle East.
Turkey hosts several key NATO facilities, including the Incirlik Air Base, which has been crucial for operations in the Middle East.
Despite recent tensions, Turkey's continued membership in NATO provides a framework for military cooperation and strategic dialogue that transcends short-term political disagreements.
The alliance also serves as a mechanism to influence Turkish policy and maintain its Western orientation.
Role in Regional Stability: Turkey's involvement is crucial for addressing several regional challenges that directly impact Western interests:
Syrian Conflict: Turkey hosts millions of Syrian refugees and plays a significant role in the conflict's dynamics.
Any sustainable solution to the Syrian crisis will require Turkish cooperation.
Counter-terrorism: Turkey has been a key partner in efforts against ISIS and other extremist groups.
Its intelligence sharing and control of its borders are vital for European security.
Migration Management: The 2016 EU-Turkey deal on managing refugee flows demonstrates Turkey's crucial role in addressing one of Europe's most pressing challenges.
Black Sea Security: In light of Russia's actions in Ukraine, Turkey's control of the Black Sea straits and its naval presence in the region are more important than ever for maintaining regional stability.
By recognizing and leveraging Turkey's strategic importance, the West can maintain channels of influence and cooperation that extend beyond the tenure of any single government.
B. Long-term Interests vs. Short-term Politics
Engaging with Turkey based solely on the policies and rhetoric of the Erdogan government risks sacrificing long-term strategic interests for short-term political considerations.
Several factors underscore the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective:
Institutional Relationships: Turkey's integration with Western institutions goes beyond its current political leadership.
Decades of cooperation within NATO, economic ties through the EU Customs Union, and educational exchanges have created a web of relationships that operate at various levels of government and society.
These institutional ties provide stability and continuity in the relationship, even during periods of political tension.
Economic Interdependence: The EU remains Turkey's largest trading partner, and Turkey is an important market for many Western companies.
This economic interdependence creates mutual interests that transcend political cycles. Maintaining and deepening these economic ties can serve as a stabilizing force in the relationship and potentially influence Turkey's domestic and foreign policy choices.
Demographic Trends: Turkey has a young and increasingly educated population. The values and aspirations of this younger generation may not align with the current government's policies.
By maintaining engagement, the West can continue to influence and appeal to this crucial demographic, potentially shaping Turkey's future orientation.
Geopolitical Alternatives: A policy of disengagement risks pushing Turkey closer to alternative partners such as Russia or China.
This could have long-term negative consequences for Western interests in the region. By maintaining engagement, the West can work to prevent such a realignment and preserve Turkey's Western orientation.
Democratic Resilience: Turkey has a history of democratic governance and strong civil society, despite recent backsliding. By maintaining engagement, the West can support these democratic traditions and institutions, potentially influencing a return to a more democratic path in the long term.
C. Turkish Civil Society and Opposition Movements
Focusing solely on Erdogan and the AKP government overlooks the diversity and dynamism of Turkish society and politics. Engaging with a broader spectrum of Turkish actors can yield several benefits:
Supporting Democratic Forces: Turkey has a vibrant opposition and civil society that continues to advocate for democratic values and human rights.
The 2019 municipal elections, which saw opposition candidates win in major cities like Istanbul and Ankara, demonstrated the resilience of Turkey's democratic forces. By engaging with these groups, the West can support pluralism and democratic governance in Turkey.
Diversifying Channels of Communication: Maintaining connections with a range of Turkish political actors, civil society organizations, and business leaders provides the West with diverse perspectives on Turkish society and politics.
This can lead to more informed policy-making and create alternative channels of influence and dialogue.
Preparing for Political Transitions: While Erdogan remains a dominant figure in Turkish politics, no government lasts forever. By engaging with a broad spectrum of Turkish society, the West can better prepare for potential political transitions and maintain influence regardless of who holds power in Ankara.
Supporting Reform Efforts: Many elements within Turkish society continue to push for reforms in areas such as rule of law, press freedom, and minority rights.
Western engagement can provide moral and practical support for these efforts, potentially influencing Turkey's long-term trajectory.
Cultural and Educational Exchange: Continued engagement in areas such as academic cooperation, cultural exchange, and people-to-people contacts can help maintain and strengthen the ties between Turkish and Western societies, fostering mutual understanding and shared values.
In conclusion, while the policies of the Erdogan government pose significant challenges to Turkey-West relations, the strategic importance of Turkey, the need for a long-term perspective, and the dynamism of Turkish society all argue for continued and deepened engagement.
By looking past Erdogan and dealing with Turkey as a complex and multifaceted partner, the West can better position itself to influence positive developments, maintain strategic advantages, and foster a stable and mutually beneficial relationship in the long term.
One of the most significant sources of tension between Turkey and the West has been the erosion of democratic norms and human rights under Erdogan's leadership. Key issues include:
Suppression of Political Opposition: The government has taken increasingly harsh measures against opposition figures, including the arrest and prosecution of politicians, particularly from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). The case of Selahattin Demirtas, the former HDP co-chair who has been imprisoned since 2016, has been a particular point of contention with the West.
Media Freedom: Turkey has become one of the world's leading jailers of journalists, with widespread censorship and government control over media outlets. The closure of numerous newspapers and television channels, as well as the arrest of journalists, has drawn sharp criticism from Western governments and human rights organizations.
Judicial Independence: The independence of the judiciary has been severely compromised, with the government exerting increased control over the appointment of judges and prosecutors. This has raised concerns about the rule of law and the ability of Turkish citizens to receive fair trials.
Civil Society Restrictions: Numerous civil society organizations have been shut down or face severe restrictions on their activities.
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