Poland at a Crossroads: Three Scenarios for the 2025 Presidential Election and Their Global Implications

Introduction: The Stakes of Poland’s 2025 Presidential Election

On June 1, 2025, Poland stands at a pivotal juncture as it holds the second round of its presidential election, a contest that has drawn international attention due to its potential to reshape Poland’s domestic and foreign policy landscape.

The candidates, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, represent two starkly contrasting visions for Poland’s future. Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw and a member of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party, advocates for deeper EU integration, progressive social policies, and a pro-Western orientation.

Nawrocki, a historian backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, campaigns on a platform of traditional values, national sovereignty, and a closer alignment with conservative global figures like Donald Trump, who has publicly endorsed him.

This election is not merely a domestic affair; its outcome will have profound implications for Poland’s role within the European Union, its relationship with the United States, and its position in the broader geopolitical context, particularly amid ongoing tensions with Russia and the war in Ukraine.

The text provided highlights the ideological divide between the candidates: Trzaskowski’s progressive stance on cultural diversity and LGBTQ+ rights has enraged conservatives, while Nawrocki’s focus on traditional values and his leadership at the Institute of National Remembrance signal a return to the PiS-era policies that often clashed with Brussels.

Polls indicate a statistical dead heat, underscoring the uncertainty and high stakes of this election.

In this academic blog post, I will explore three distinct scenarios for the outcome of the 2025 Polish presidential election: a Trzaskowski victory, a Nawrocki victory, and a contested result leading to political instability.

Each scenario will analyze the immediate domestic consequences, the impact on Poland’s EU relations, and the broader geopolitical ramifications, particularly in the context of U.S. and Russian influence.

This analysis aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the potential trajectories Poland might take, offering insights for scholars, policymakers, and observers of European politics.

Scenario 1: Rafał Trzaskowski’s Victory – A Pro-EU Renaissance

Domestic Impact: Legislative Momentum and Social Reforms

A victory for Rafał Trzaskowski would mark a significant turning point for Poland’s domestic politics, particularly for the government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Trzaskowski, as a deputy leader of the Civic Platform, has aligned himself closely with Tusk’s agenda, which includes rolling back the judicial reforms introduced by PiS, liberalizing Poland’s restrictive abortion laws, and advancing rights for marginalized groups, such as the LGBTQ+ community.

With Trzaskowski in the presidential palace, the veto power that outgoing President Andrzej Duda has wielded to obstruct Tusk’s legislative initiatives would be removed, enabling the government to push forward its reform agenda with renewed vigor.

One of the most immediate impacts would be on the judiciary. PiS’s reforms, which critics argue politicized the courts, have been a major point of contention with the EU.

Trzaskowski has promised to sign bills aimed at restoring judicial independence, such as restructuring the National Council of the Judiciary, a body at the heart of PiS’s changes.

This would not only strengthen the rule of law in Poland but also rebuild trust with European institutions, potentially unlocking further EU funds that have been withheld due to concerns over democratic backsliding.

Socially, Trzaskowski’s presidency would likely accelerate progressive reforms. His support for LGBTQ+ rights, evidenced by his participation in Pride parades and his decision to exclude Christian crosses from new office buildings in Warsaw, signals a commitment to cultural diversity and secular governance.

While these positions have made him a polarizing figure in conservative rural areas, they resonate strongly in urban centers like Warsaw, where he has modernized infrastructure and cultural investments.

A Trzaskowski presidency could lead to legislative efforts to legalize same-sex partnerships and ease Poland’s near-total abortion ban, fulfilling promises that Tusk’s coalition has struggled to deliver due to Duda’s vetoes.

However, Trzaskowski’s close association with Tusk, whose government has seen declining public support due to unfulfilled promises, could pose challenges.

Voter fatigue and dissatisfaction with the Civic Platform’s performance might lead to backlash from conservative and rural constituencies, potentially fueling protests or social unrest. Additionally, the far-right, which secured a significant share of votes in the first round (with candidates like Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun collectively garnering over 21%), could become a more vocal opposition, further polarizing Polish society.

EU Relations: A Path to Reintegration

A Trzaskowski victory would significantly advance Poland’s reintegration into the EU mainstream, a process that Tusk has prioritized since taking office in 2023.

The PiS government’s tenure from 2015 to 2023 was marked by frequent clashes with Brussels over issues like abortion laws, freedom of speech, and judicial independence.

Trzaskowski’s pro-European stance, rooted in his experience as a former member of the European Parliament, would likely finalize the thaw in EU-Poland relations that began under Tusk.

The restoration of judicial independence would address one of the EU’s primary concerns, potentially leading to the release of additional recovery funds and strengthening Poland’s influence in European policymaking.

Trzaskowski has pledged to position Poland as a leader in EU-U.S. relations, a goal that aligns with Tusk’s vision of Poland as a key player in NATO and the EU.

This could enhance Poland’s strategic importance, especially given its role as a frontline state in the context of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

However, Trzaskowski’s progressive social policies might still face scrutiny from more conservative EU member states, such as Hungary, which has also clashed with Brussels over similar issues.

While his presidency would generally align Poland more closely with EU norms, navigating these tensions could require careful diplomacy to maintain unity within the bloc.

Geopolitical Implications: Strengthening Western Alliances

Geopolitically, a Trzaskowski presidency would reinforce Poland’s commitment to Western alliances, particularly with the EU and NATO. Poland, as NATO’s top spender relative to GDP and a key supporter of Ukraine, has positioned itself as a critical player in European security. Trzaskowski’s multilingual background and pro-European outlook would likely enhance Poland’s diplomatic standing, fostering stronger ties with Western leaders like Germany’s Friedrich Merz, France’s Emmanuel Macron, and the UK’s Keir Starmer, as evidenced by their joint visit to Kyiv alongside Tusk.

Trzaskowski’s support for Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership, once the war ends, aligns with Poland’s strategic interests in countering Russian aggression.

His presidency would likely maintain Poland’s robust military spending (4.7% of GDP in 2025) and initiatives like offering military training to adult males, signaling a continued commitment to regional security.

However, his relationship with the U.S. under Donald Trump could be strained. Trump’s endorsement of Nawrocki and his administration’s implied warning of reduced military ties if Trzaskowski wins suggest potential friction.

Trzaskowski has emphasized his pragmatic relationship with Republicans, but navigating Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy could be a challenge.

Scenario 2: Karol Nawrocki’s Victory – A Return to Nationalist Governance

Domestic Impact: Obstructionism and Cultural Conservatism

If Karol Nawrocki emerges victorious, Poland would likely see a return to the nationalist policies that defined the PiS government from 2015 to 2023.

Nawrocki, a 42-year-old historian and head of the Institute of National Remembrance, has campaigned on a platform of traditional values, promising to block Tusk’s legislative agenda and prioritize national sovereignty over EU integration.

His lack of political experience and affiliation with PiS, despite not being a formal member, make him a continuity candidate for the party’s base, which remains strong among older, rural, and conservative voters.

Domestically, Nawrocki’s presidency would likely perpetuate the gridlock that has frustrated Tusk’s government since 2023.

With the president’s veto power, Nawrocki could obstruct key reforms, including efforts to restore judicial independence, liberalize abortion laws, and advance LGBTQ+ rights.

His focus on traditional Catholic values, as seen in his opposition to the EU’s Green Deal and his emphasis on Polish heroism at the Museum of the Second World War, would resonate with PiS’s core supporters but alienate urban and progressive voters.

Policies like reducing VAT from 23% to 22%, lowering energy bills, and vetoing EU environmental initiatives could appeal to economically strained households but might exacerbate tensions with Brussels.

Nawrocki’s presidency would also likely intensify Poland’s culture wars. His campaign has highlighted patriotic programs in schools and the restoration of national heroes’ memory, signaling a push for a more homogenous national identity.

This could lead to increased marginalization of minority groups, particularly the LGBTQ+ community, and potentially spark protests in urban centers like Warsaw, where Trzaskowski’s progressive policies have strong support.

Moreover, Nawrocki’s past controversies, such as allegations of mismanagement at the Institute of National Remembrance and his involvement in football hooliganism, could undermine his credibility and fuel opposition narratives of corruption and unfitness for office.

EU Relations: A Renewed Clash with Brussels

A Nawrocki victory would almost certainly reignite tensions between Poland and the EU. During PiS’s tenure, Warsaw was frequently at odds with Brussels over issues like judicial independence, freedom of speech, and LGBTQ+ rights.

Nawrocki’s promise to block Tusk’s agenda and his opposition to the EU Green Deal suggest a return to this confrontational stance.

His presidency would likely hinder efforts to restore the rule of law, potentially leading to renewed sanctions or the withholding of EU funds, which Tusk’s government has only recently secured through promises of reform.

Nawrocki’s alignment with conservative figures like Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, both of whom have endorsed him, could further isolate Poland within the EU.

Orbán’s close ties to the Kremlin might raise concerns about Nawrocki’s foreign policy priorities, particularly in the context of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine.

While Nawrocki has expressed support for NATO and a strong alliance with the U.S., his nationalist rhetoric and focus on sovereignty could complicate Poland’s role as a cooperative EU member, potentially aligning it more closely with Eurosceptic states.

Geopolitical Implications: A Tilt Toward Trump’s Orbit

Geopolitically, Nawrocki’s presidency would likely strengthen Poland’s ties with the U.S. under Donald Trump, who has actively supported his campaign. Trump’s Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s endorsement at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Poland, coupled with promises of closer military ties, suggests that a Nawrocki victory could enhance U.S.-Polish relations, particularly in the defense sector.

Nawrocki’s proposal to increase the Polish army to 300,000 soldiers and his focus on national security align with Trump’s emphasis on bilateral military partnerships.

However, this alignment could come at the expense of Poland’s relationship with the EU and other Western allies.

Nawrocki’s skepticism of EU policies, particularly the Green Deal, and his nationalist agenda might strain ties with key European partners like Germany and France, who have prioritized climate action and EU unity.

Furthermore, Nawrocki’s appeal to far-right voters, as evidenced by his outreach to supporters of Sławomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun, could raise concerns about Poland’s democratic trajectory, potentially drawing criticism from Western democracies.

The most significant geopolitical risk lies in Nawrocki’s potential impact on Poland’s support for Ukraine.

While PiS has historically backed Ukraine against Russia, Nawrocki’s alignment with far-right elements, some of whom advocate limiting support for Kyiv, could lead to a shift in policy. His appearance on Mentzen’s platform, where he signed onto a controversial stance on Ukraine, suggests a possible cooling of Poland’s commitment to Ukraine’s NATO integration, which could embolden Russia and weaken regional security.

Scenario 3: A Contested Result – Political Instability and Crisis

Domestic Impact: A Fractured Political Landscape

The tight polling between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, with margins often within the statistical error, raises the possibility of a contested election result.

If the outcome on June 1, 2025, is too close to call or marred by allegations of irregularities, Poland could face a period of significant political instability.

The National Electoral Commission, tasked with overseeing the election, has a balanced composition, but PiS’s "Electoral Protection Movement" and its history of challenging electoral processes could lead to accusations of fraud from either side.

A contested result would deepen Poland’s already severe political polarization. Trzaskowski’s urban, progressive base and Nawrocki’s rural, conservative supporters are unlikely to accept a disputed outcome, potentially leading to mass protests, legal challenges, and even violence.

The far-right, which has gained significant traction in this election cycle, might exploit the chaos to further its anti-establishment agenda, with figures like Sławomir Mentzen positioning themselves as alternatives to both PiS and Civic Platform.

This could fragment the right-wing vote, potentially triggering a civil war within PiS, as predicted by some analysts, and weakening its dominance on the right.

For Tusk’s government, a contested election would exacerbate existing challenges. The coalition’s inability to deliver on key promises, such as abortion law reform, has already eroded public support.

A prolonged crisis would further paralyze legislative efforts, deepening voter disillusionment and potentially leading to early parliamentary elections.

The risk of authoritarian backsliding, a concern during PiS’s tenure, could resurface if Nawrocki’s camp uses the crisis to consolidate power, possibly through emergency measures or media control, echoing tactics seen under PiS’s previous rule.

EU Relations: A Stalemate with Brussels

A contested election would stall Poland’s reintegration with the EU, leaving its relationship with Brussels in limbo.

The EU has been cautiously optimistic about Tusk’s government, releasing funds based on promises of judicial reform.

However, a political crisis would delay these reforms, potentially leading to renewed tensions and financial penalties.

The uncertainty would also weaken Poland’s influence within the EU, diminishing its ability to shape policies on critical issues like climate change and migration.

Moreover, a contested result could embolden Eurosceptic forces across Europe, particularly in Hungary, where Orbán has already endorsed Nawrocki.

If Poland descends into instability, it might align more closely with Eurosceptic states, undermining EU unity at a time when the bloc faces challenges from Russia, climate change, and internal divisions.

The EU might attempt to mediate the crisis, but its leverage would be limited, especially if far-right elements gain further traction.

Geopolitical Implications: A Vulnerable Frontline State

Geopolitically, a contested election would weaken Poland’s position as a frontline state in NATO and the EU, creating vulnerabilities that Russia could exploit.

Poland’s robust support for Ukraine, including military aid and hosting refugees, has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy.

A political crisis would distract from these efforts, potentially reducing Poland’s commitment to Kyiv and signaling weakness to Moscow.

Russia, which has already placed Nawrocki on a wanted list for his efforts to remove Soviet monuments, might intensify hybrid warfare tactics, such as cyberattacks, to further destabilize Poland.

The U.S. response would depend on the nature of the crisis. Trump’s administration, having backed Nawrocki, might pressure Poland to resolve the situation in his favor, potentially straining relations with the EU.

However, if the crisis leads to a broader erosion of democratic norms, even Trump’s support might waver, leaving Poland isolated.

NATO’s cohesion could also be tested, as Poland’s internal instability might hinder its ability to fulfill its defense commitments, particularly in the Baltic region, where Article 5 obligations remain a critical deterrent against Russian aggression.

Conclusion: Poland’s Future in the Balance

The 2025 Polish presidential election is a defining moment for the country and its role in the world.

A Trzaskowski victory would bolster Tusk’s government, advance EU integration, and strengthen Poland’s Western alliances, though it might face domestic resistance from conservative and far-right groups.

A Nawrocki win would revert Poland to nationalist governance, obstruct progressive reforms, and align it more closely with Trump’s orbit, potentially at the expense of EU relations and regional stability.

A contested result, however, poses the greatest risk, threatening political instability, a stalemate with Brussels, and vulnerabilities that Russia could exploit.

Each scenario underscores the deep divisions within Polish society and the broader challenges facing Europe in an era of rising populism, geopolitical tensions, and democratic fragility.

As Poland awaits the results on June 1, 2025, the world watches closely, aware that the outcome will reverberate far beyond its borders.

For scholars and policymakers, this election serves as a case study in the fragility of democratic institutions, the power of ideological divides, and the complex interplay of domestic and international forces in shaping a nation’s trajectory.

Democracy in Danger: How Populism and Far-Right Extremism Are Shaping the Future. - Kindle edition by florin, serban . Politics & Social Sciences Kindle eBooks @ Amazon.com.