Romania’s 2025 Presidential Election: A Democratic Crossroads Amid Nationalist Surge and Geopolitical Tensions
- Prof.Serban Gabriel
- May 2
- 8 min read
The Context: A Turbulent Path to 2025
Romania’s 2025 presidential election is not merely a routine democratic exercise but a response to an extraordinary crisis.
The annulment of the 2024 presidential election on December 6, 2024, just 48 hours before the second round, marked a historic precedent in post-revolutionary Romania.
The Constitutional Court cited evidence of “aggressive Russian hybrid attacks,” including cyberattacks and a coordinated social media campaign on platforms like TikTok, which propelled Călin Georgescu to an unexpected first-round victory with 23% of the vote.
Georgescu, an independent candidate with ties to the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), capitalized on anti-establishment sentiment, religious nationalism, and disillusionment with mainstream parties, particularly among youth and rural voters.
The annulment sparked widespread protests, with Georgescu’s supporters, backed by AUR, decrying the decision as a “coup” against democracy.
The controversy deepened when Georgescu was barred from running in the 2025 rerun due to charges of incitement, support for fascist groups, and campaign finance irregularities.
His disqualification, alongside that of other far-right figures like Diana Șoșoacă, raised questions about the balance between protecting democratic integrity and ensuring electoral inclusivity.
The resignation of President Klaus Iohannis on February 12, 2025, following an impeachment attempt, further destabilized the political landscape.
Senate President Ilie Bolojan assumed the role of interim president, tasked with overseeing the election process amidst ongoing protests and legal challenges.
The 2025 election thus unfolds against a backdrop of institutional fragility, public distrust, and heightened geopolitical stakes, as Romania navigates its role as a NATO and EU member state bordering Ukraine.
The Candidates: A Fractured Political Spectrum
The 2025 presidential election features a diverse field of candidates, with approximately 11 contenders validated by the Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) after a rigorous process requiring 200,000 signatures and scrutiny by the Constitutional Court.
While polls suggest that only a handful have a realistic chance of advancing to the runoff, the ideological diversity of the candidates reflects Romania’s polarized political landscape. Below is an analysis of the five leading contenders, based on available polling and media coverage.
George Simion (Alliance for the Unity of Romanians – AUR)
George Simion, the 38-year-old leader of AUR, has emerged as the frontrunner, polling at approximately 29%. A charismatic and polarizing figure, Simion has capitalized on the disqualification of Călin Georgescu, whom he supported in 2024, to consolidate far-right support. His platform blends ultranationalism, Euroskepticism, and opposition to military aid for Ukraine, while advocating for a “Romania first” agenda.
Simion’s rise from an anti-vaccination activist during the COVID-19 pandemic to a major political force underscores his ability to tap into public discontent with mainstream parties.
However, his campaign is under scrutiny for potential irregularities, including questionable signature collection and unreported online promotion. Simion’s alignment with Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement and his bans from Moldova and Ukraine for advocating territorial unification further complicate his candidacy.
Crin Antonescu (National Liberal Party – PNL, Social Democratic Party – PSD, UDMR Coalition)
Crin Antonescu, a 65-year-old former PNL leader, represents the pro-Western governing coalition of PNL, PSD, and the ethnic Hungarian UDMR party. A veteran politician who retired from politics a decade ago, Antonescu’s candidacy is a strategic move by the coalition to present a unified front against far-right challengers. His platform emphasizes Romania’s commitment to the EU and NATO, increased defense spending, and economic stability. However, Antonescu’s association with the establishment and his role in the 2012 attempt to impeach then-President Traian Băsescu may alienate voters disillusioned with traditional parties. His polling averages around 20-25%, placing him in a competitive position for the runoff.
Nicușor Dan (Independent, formerly Save Romania Union – USR)
Nicușor Dan, the current mayor of Bucharest, is running as an independent centrist with ties to the reformist USR. Polling at approximately 20%, Dan appeals to urban, pro-European voters who support Romania’s EU and NATO membership and continued aid to Ukraine. His campaign focuses on anti-corruption, urban development, and social inclusivity, though his statements on civil partnerships have been criticized for lacking context. Dan’s outsider status and reformist credentials make him a strong contender, but his appeal may be limited among rural and nationalist voters.
Elena Lasconi (Save Romania Union – USR)
Elena Lasconi, a 52-year-old former journalist and USR leader, is a pro-European candidate advocating for increased defense spending, support for Ukraine, and progressive social policies, including civil unions for same-sex couples. She finished second in the annulled 2024 election and remains a viable contender, polling at around 15-20%. Lasconi’s criticism of the election annulment as a “coup” and her clashes with mainstream party leaders highlight her anti-establishment streak, but her progressive stance may struggle to resonate with conservative voters.
Victor Ponta (Pro Romania)
Victor Ponta, a former prime minister and PSD leader, is running on a nationalist “Romania first” platform, polling at approximately 15%. His campaign promises to protect local farmers by halting Ukrainian grain exports through Romanian ports, a stance that has drawn criticism for its anti-Ukraine implications. Ponta’s political baggage, including his resignation in 2015 amid corruption allegations following a nightclub fire, may limit his appeal, but his sovereigntist rhetoric attracts voters disillusioned with both the far-right and pro-European camps.
Legal and Political Controversies
The 2025 election has been marred by legal and political controversies that have eroded public trust in Romania’s democratic institutions.
The annulment of the 2024 election, while justified by the Constitutional Court as a defense against foreign interference, has been criticized for its lack of transparency and weak evidential basis.
The Venice Commission of the Council of Europe expressed “erhebliche Bedenken” (significant concerns) about the annulment’s justification, arguing that such measures require clear evidence of severe electoral violations.
The decision fueled perceptions of an “establishment coup” among far-right supporters, amplifying distrust in institutions.
Călin Georgescu’s disqualification further intensified these tensions. On February 26, 2025, Georgescu was charged with incitement to actions against the constitutional order, support for fascist groups, and campaign finance violations, including the discovery of $10 million buried at his bodyguard’s house and plane tickets to Moscow.
His candidacy was rejected by the BEC on March 9, and the Constitutional Court upheld the decision on March 11, leaving him with no further avenues for appeal.
Critics argue that the charges, while serious, were hastily applied to exclude a popular candidate, bypassing regular judicial processes.
Georgescu’s supporters, including AUR and international figures like U.S. Vice President JD Vance, have framed his exclusion as an attack on democracy.
A surprising twist occurred on April 24, 2025, when the Ploiești Court of Appeals overturned the Constitutional Court’s annulment of the 2024 election, arguing that the decision lacked legal grounding. This ruling, widely regarded as a “judicial aberration,” was quickly challenged by the Prosecutor’s Office and is expected to be overturned by the High Court, ensuring that the May 4 vote proceeds as planned. Nonetheless, the episode underscored the fragility of Romania’s judicial system and its susceptibility to political manipulation.
Disinformation and Foreign Interference
The 2024 election annulment highlighted the growing threat of disinformation and foreign interference in Romania’s democratic processes.
Declassified intelligence reports revealed a “highly organized” TikTok campaign that artificially boosted Georgescu’s visibility, involving paid influencers, extremist groups, and coordinated messaging.
The Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI) and Foreign Intelligence Service (SIE) attributed over 85,000 cyberattacks to a “state actor,” implicitly Russia, though not explicitly named.
TikTok’s failure to disclose the funding behind Georgescu’s viral content and its removal of over 5,500 election-related violations underscored the platform’s role as a vector for manipulation.
The 2025 campaign has seen heightened vigilance against disinformation. The government has tightened campaign rules, requiring transparency in ad sponsorship and enabling rapid content removal by social media platforms.
However, disinformation narratives persist, particularly around Georgescu’s legitimacy and fear-mongering about war and economic collapse.
Fact-checking efforts by organizations like Factual.ro have identified false claims by candidates like Victor Ponta, who denied EU aid to Ukraine, and misleading statements by Nicușor Dan on civil partnerships.
These efforts highlight the challenge of maintaining a shared reality in Romania’s polarized political discourse.
Geopolitical Implications
Romania’s 2025 presidential election carries significant geopolitical weight. As a NATO member on the alliance’s eastern flank and an EU state bordering Ukraine, Romania plays a critical role in supporting Kyiv against Russia’s invasion.
A victory for a nationalist candidate like George Simion or Victor Ponta, who oppose military aid to Ukraine, could strain Romania’s alliances and align it closer to Euroskeptic governments in Hungary and Slovakia. Conversely, a win for pro-European candidates like Crin Antonescu, Nicușor Dan, or Elena Lasconi would reinforce Romania’s Western orientation and commitment to NATO and EU integration.
The election is being closely watched in Brussels, Washington, and Kyiv.
The EU seeks to avoid another nationalist disruptor in the region, while Ukraine relies on Romania’s strategic support, including its role as a transit hub for grain exports.
The diaspora vote, which accounts for 5-7% of ballots and has historically favored far-right candidates, adds another layer of complexity.
The outcome will also influence Romania’s domestic stability, as ongoing protests and distrust in institutions could escalate if the election is perceived as unfair.
Theoretical Framework: Democratic Backsliding and Populist Nationalism
The 2025 Romanian presidential election can be analyzed through the lens of democratic backsliding and the global rise of populist nationalism.
Scholars like Levitsky and Ziblatt (2018) argue that democratic erosion occurs when elected leaders undermine institutions, polarize societies, and exploit public discontent.
Romania’s annulment of the 2024 election and the disqualification of candidates like Georgescu raise concerns about institutional overreach, even if motivated by legitimate security concerns.
Populist nationalism, as articulated by Mudde (2004), thrives on anti-elite sentiment, cultural traditionalism, and skepticism of supranational institutions like the EU.
Candidates like Simion and Ponta embody these traits, appealing to voters frustrated with corruption, economic inequality, and perceived foreign influence.
Georgescu’s 2024 success, driven by TikTok’s viral reach, illustrates how digital platforms amplify populist messages, bypassing traditional media gatekeepers.
Romania’s case also reflects broader European trends, where far-right parties have gained traction in countries like France, Italy, and Hungary.
The interplay of domestic grievances and foreign interference, particularly from Russia, underscores the hybrid threats facing modern democracies (Galeotti, 2020). Romania’s ability to navigate these challenges will depend on the transparency of its electoral process and the resilience of its institutions.
Conclusion
Romania’s 2025 presidential election is a high-stakes contest that will determine the country’s democratic trajectory and geopolitical alignment.
The annulment of the 2024 election, the disqualification of Călin Georgescu, and the rise of George Simion highlight the fragility of Romania’s democratic institutions and the potency of nationalist populism. With candidates representing a spectrum of ideologies—from far-right Euroskepticism to pro-European reformism—the election reflects deep societal divisions and the challenges of consolidating democracy in a geopolitically volatile region.
The outcome will have far-reaching implications for Romania’s role in the EU and NATO, its support for Ukraine, and its domestic stability.
To safeguard its democracy, Romania must address disinformation, strengthen institutional transparency, and rebuild public trust.
As voters head to the polls on May 4, the world watches a nation at a crossroads, where the choices made will resonate far beyond Cotroceni Palace.
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