The New Great Game: Turkey and Israel's Strategic Maneuvers in Post-Assad Syria

In the wake of Bashar al-Assad's flight from Syria on December 8, 2024, a new geopolitical landscape is rapidly emerging in the Levant.

Turkey and Israel, two regional powers with historically complex relationships with Syria, are now actively shaping the future of their war-torn neighbor.

This blog post examines the recent developments and their implications for the broader Middle East.

Israel's Military Intervention

Israel has launched an unprecedented military campaign in Syria, codenamed "Operation Arrow of Bashan"

. The operation has two main components:

1. Ground Invasion: Israeli forces have moved into the buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, effectively expanding their control beyond the 1974 ceasefire lines

2. Aerial Campaign: The Israeli Air Force has conducted over 200 airstrikes across Syria, targeting military infrastructure, air defense systems, and naval assets

The scale of this operation is significant:

• Troop Deployment: Israel has committed 2 brigades, estimated at 6,000 to 10,000 troops

• Targets: Strikes have hit locations in Damascus, Daraa, Latakia, and Hama, among others

• Casualties: While Israel reports no losses, at least 7 Syrian civilians have been killed, with others taken prisoner

Turkey's Diplomatic Offensive

In contrast to Israel's military approach, Turkey is pursuing a more diplomatic strategy:

• Support for New Government: Turkey has thrown its weight behind the transitional government led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

• Dialogue: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has announced close dialogue with Syria's de facto leader

• Military Training: Turkey has offered to provide military training to the new Syrian government

International Reactions

The international community has responded with concern to these developments:

• United Nations: Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has criticized Israel's actions as a violation of the 1974 agreement

• Arab League: The organization has condemned Israel's incursion into the buffer zone

• Turkey: While supporting Syria's sovereignty, Turkey has strongly condemned Israel's actions, calling them an "occupation mentality"

Strategic Implications

The actions of both Turkey and Israel are reshaping the regional balance of power:

1. Buffer Zone Control: Israel's occupation of the buffer zone alters the longstanding status quo established after the 1973 Yom Kippur War

2. Syrian Military Capabilities: Israel's airstrikes have severely degraded Syria's military infrastructure, with one former rebel commander stating it will "need decades to rebuild a national Syrian army"

3. Turkish Influence: Turkey's support for the new government could potentially turn Syria into a "Turkish protectorate"

4. Iranian Influence: Both Turkey and Israel's actions may be aimed at limiting Iran's ability to use Syria as a conduit for supporting groups like Hezbollah

Conclusion

The fall of the Assad regime has created a power vacuum in Syria that Turkey and Israel are rushing to fill. Their divergent approaches – Israel's military intervention and Turkey's diplomatic maneuvering – reflect their different strategic priorities and historical relationships with Syria.

As these two regional powers stake their claims, the future of Syria hangs in the balance, with significant implications for regional stability and the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.

The international community, particularly the United States and Russia, will need to carefully navigate this new reality to prevent further escalation and work towards a stable, peaceful Syria.

The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Syria becomes a battleground for regional rivalries or a foundation for a new, more stable Middle East order.