Turkey's foreign policy has undergone significant transformations in recent years, particularly with its increasing alignment with China.
This shift is often characterized as a "pivot" towards China, influenced by a combination of economic necessity, geopolitical strategy, and historical ties.
This essay explores the multifaceted reasons behind Turkey's pivot to China, examining economic conditions, political motivations, and the implications for Turkey's relations with Western allies.
Turkey's economy has faced severe challenges, including high inflation rates, a depreciating currency, and a growing trade deficit.
As of recent reports, inflation in Turkey has soared above 75%, significantly impacting the purchasing power of its citizens and eroding confidence in the Turkish lira.
The economic crisis has prompted the Turkish government to seek foreign investment aggressively, with China emerging as a key partner due to its vast financial resources.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) presents an opportunity for Turkey to enhance its infrastructure and trade capabilities.
Turkey's strategic location as a bridge between Europe and Asia makes it an attractive partner for China, which seeks to expand its influence in the region.
The Turkish government aims to leverage Chinese investment to revitalize its economy and reduce its trade imbalance.
Recent diplomatic visits, such as that of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to China, underscore this growing partnership and the importance of Chinese investment for Turkey's economic recovery
Turkey's pivot to China is also a reflection of its broader foreign policy strategy, which has increasingly moved away from traditional Western alliances.
The rise of multipolarity in global politics has allowed Turkey to explore alternative partnerships, particularly with non-Western powers like China and Russia.
This shift is evident in Turkey's engagement with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its emphasis on strengthening ties with Asian countries.
Turkey's historical ties with both the West and the East create a complex diplomatic landscape. While seeking closer relations with China, Turkey must navigate its commitments to NATO and its relationships with Western allies.
The growing cooperation with China may lead to tensions with the West, particularly as Turkey seeks to balance its economic interests with geopolitical realities.
The Turkish government is aware of the risks associated with increased dependence on China, including potential vulnerabilities to external pressures and the need to maintain a diplomatic balancing act.
The ideational aspect of Turkey's foreign policy cannot be overlooked.
The current Turkish leadership, under President Erdoğan, has often invoked historical narratives and cultural pride to justify its foreign policy decisions.
This approach resonates with domestic audiences and reinforces the legitimacy of the government's pivot towards China as part of a broader vision of Turkey's role in the world.
Turkey's growing ties with China are likely to strain its relationships with Western allies.
The West has expressed concerns over Turkey's increasing alignment with authoritarian regimes, which could undermine NATO's collective security framework.
As Turkey deepens its economic ties with China, it may face pressure from Western capitals to reconsider its strategic partnerships.
n recent years, trade between Turkey and China has seen substantial growth, although it remains heavily skewed in favor of China.
In 2022, Turkey exported approximately $3.58 billion worth of goods to China, primarily consisting of marble, borates, and chromium ore.
Conversely, China exported around $38.5 billion to Turkey, with major exports including electrical machinery, computers, and vehicles.
This trade imbalance has contributed to Turkey's ongoing current account deficit, with imports from China significantly outpacing exports.
From 2017 to 2022, Turkey's exports to China grew at an annualized rate of 2.98%, while imports from China surged by 11.6% during the same period.
This trend underscores Turkey's increasing dependency on Chinese goods, particularly in high-tech sectors where Turkey's exports remain limited, with high-tech products constituting only 3.8% of Turkey's exports compared to 13% of its imports from China.
The economic implications of this trade relationship are profound.
Turkey's reliance on Chinese imports has exacerbated its current account deficit, which has been a persistent issue for the Turkish economy.
Over the past five years, Turkey's imports from China amounted to nearly $113 billion, while exports totaled just $13 billion, indicating a significant trade imbalance.
This situation raises concerns about Turkey's long-term economic stability and its ability to negotiate favorable terms with China.
As Turkey seeks to recover from its economic challenges, the relationship with China is likely to deepen. Future scenarios may include:
Increased Chinese Investment: With Turkey's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), there is potential for increased Chinese direct investment in Turkish infrastructure projects.
This could lead to improved economic conditions in Turkey, although it may also result in greater economic dependency on China.
Diversification of Exports: Turkey may focus on enhancing the quality and diversity of its exports to China.
By investing in technology and education, Turkey could aim to increase its share of high-tech exports, reducing the trade deficit over time.
Geopolitical Tensions: As Turkey strengthens its ties with China, it may face pushback from Western allies, particularly the United States and the European Union.
The balancing act between maintaining NATO obligations and fostering closer relations with China will be a critical challenge for Turkish foreign policy.
Potential Risks
While the pivot to China offers opportunities, it also presents risks:
Economic Vulnerability: Increased reliance on China could expose Turkey to economic vulnerabilities, particularly if China faces economic downturns or shifts its focus elsewhere.
Geopolitical Isolation: Turkey's closer ties with China may alienate Western allies, leading to a potential geopolitical isolation that could impact Turkey's security and economic interests.
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