As Ursula von der Leyen prepares for a potential second term as President of the European Commission, she faces a political landscape fraught with challenges.
Her first term, marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, demonstrated her crisis management skills. However, the next five years promise even greater tests for both her leadership and the European project as a whole.
The COVID-19 pandemic was perhaps the most significant test of von der Leyen's leadership, and the data suggests a mixed performance:
Vaccine Procurement Delays: The EU's initial vaccine rollout lagged behind other developed nations. By March 2021, the EU had administered only 11.3 doses per 100 people, compared to 34.1 in the UK and 32.1 in the US.
Economic Impact: The EU economy contracted by 6.1% in 2020, with southern member states like Spain (-10.8%) and Italy (-8.9%) hit particularly hard.
Recovery Fund Implementation: While the €750 billion NextGenerationEU fund was a landmark achievement, disbursement has been slow. As of August 2023, only about 25% of the funds had been paid out to member states.
While ambitious in its goals, the implementation of the European Green Deal has faced challenges:
Emissions Reduction: The EU is currently on track to reduce emissions by only 41% by 2030, falling short of its 55% target.
Renewable Energy: The share of renewable energy in the EU's energy mix reached 22% in 2022, but progress has slowed in recent years.
Just Transition Funding: The €17.5 billion Just Transition Fund has been criticized as insufficient, representing only 1.6% of the estimated €1 trillion needed for the green transition.
Von der Leyen's approach to rule of law issues has been widely criticized as too soft:
Hungary and Poland: Despite ongoing concerns, EU funds to Hungary were only frozen in December 2022, while Poland continues to receive funds despite rule of law concerns.
Article 7 Proceedings: Initiated against Poland in 2017 and Hungary in 2018, these proceedings have made little progress under von der Leyen's leadership.
Press Freedom: The EU dropped from 5th to 13th place in the World Press Freedom Index between 2019 and 2023.
The New Pact on Migration and Asylum, proposed in 2020, has failed to address key issues:
Asylum Applications: The EU received 966,000 asylum applications in 2022, an increase of 50% compared to 2021, straining the current system.
Irregular Border Crossings: These increased by 64% in 2022 compared to 2021, reaching 330,000.
Resettlement: EU member states resettled only 16,000 refugees in 2022, far below the proposed target of 30,000.
While some progress has been made, the EU continues to lag in key areas:
Digital Skills: Only 54% of EU citizens have basic digital skills, far short of the 2025 target of 70%.
AI Investment: The EU's investment in AI lags behind global competitors, with only 7% of global equity funding for AI going to European companies in 2022.
5G Rollout: By the end of 2022, 5G coverage reached only 72% of populated areas in the EU, behind the US at 93%.
Von der Leyen's tenure has seen mixed economic results:
Inflation: Eurozone inflation peaked at 10.6% in October 2022, the highest since the euro's creation, eroding citizens' purchasing power.
Public Debt: The average government debt-to-GDP ratio in the EU rose from 79.2% in 2019 to 90.1% in 2022.
Economic Divergence: The gap between the highest and lowest GDP per capita in the EU widened from a factor of 5.1 in 2019 to 5.3 in 2022.
The concept of a "geopolitical Commission" has faced several setbacks:
Strategic Autonomy: The EU's dependence on critical raw materials remains high, with China supplying 98% of the EU's rare earth elements.
Defense Spending: While increasing, the EU's collective defense spending of 1.5% of GDP in 2021 remains well below the NATO target of 2%.
Foreign Policy Unity: The EU failed to reach unanimity on several key foreign policy issues, including sanctions on Belarus and the response to tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Progress on social issues has been limited:
Youth Unemployment: While decreasing overall, youth unemployment remains high at 14.5% in 2022, with rates above 20% in countries like Spain and Greece.
Gender Pay Gap: The unadjusted gender pay gap in the EU stood at 13% in 2021, showing only marginal improvement from 14.1% in 2019.
Risk of Poverty: 21.7% of the EU population was at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2021, an increase from 21.1% in 2019.
Key Challenges and Data Insights
Geopolitical Instability:
The ongoing war in Ukraine has led to over €70 billion in EU support to Ukraine as of June 2023.
NATO defense spending among European members has increased from 1.52% of GDP in 2019 to 1.85% in 2023.
Internal EU Dynamics:
The 2024 European Parliament elections are projected to see far-right parties potentially increasing their share from 19% to 25% of seats.
Euroskeptic parties now govern or are part of governing coalitions in 10 out of 27 EU member states.
Financial Pressures:
The EU's 2021-2027 long-term budget, coupled with the NextGenerationEU recovery instrument, amounts to €2.018 trillion.
Defense spending across the EU increased by €70 billion between 2019 and 2023, reaching €270 billion.
Enlargement:
There are currently 7 candidate countries for EU membership, with Ukraine and Moldova granted candidate status in 2022.
The EU has allocated €14.2 billion in pre-accession assistance for 2021-2027.
Democratic Legitimacy:
Voter turnout in European Parliament elections increased from 42.6% in 2014 to 50.7% in 2019, but remains low compared to national elections.
Only 43% of EU citizens trust the European Union, according to the Eurobarometer survey in 2023.
Technology and Innovation:
The EU aims to produce 20% of the world's semiconductors by 2030, up from 10% in 2020.
The EU's digital economy and society index (DESI) shows that only 54% of Europeans aged 16-74 have at least basic digital skills.
Climate Action:
The EU has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
The European Green Deal Investment Plan aims to mobilize at least €1 trillion in sustainable investments over the next decade.
Social Cohesion:
Income inequality in the EU, as measured by the Gini coefficient, stood at 30.1 in 2021, with significant variations between member states.
Youth unemployment in the EU was 14.5% in 2022, down from a peak of 24.4% in 2013, but still concerning.
Critical Perspectives and Performance Metrics
Democratic Deficit:
Von der Leyen was elected with just a 9-vote margin in the European Parliament, the narrowest in EU history.
Lack of Vision:
The Commission has launched 43 new policy initiatives since 2019, but critics argue they lack coherence.
Bureaucratic Inertia:
The EU's initial vaccine procurement in 2020 lagged behind the UK and US by several months.
Rule of Law Concerns:
The Commission has triggered the rule of law conditionality mechanism against Hungary, potentially withholding €7.5 billion in EU funds.
Reform Stagnation:
The New Pact on Migration and Asylum, proposed in 2020, is still under negotiation.
Economic Policy:
Eurozone inflation peaked at 10.6% in October 2022, the highest since the euro's creation.
Environmental Implementation:
The EU is currently on track to reduce emissions by 41% by 2030, falling short of its 55% target.
Geopolitical Stance:
The EU has imposed 11 packages of sanctions against Russia, but their effectiveness is debated.
Communication:
Only 34% of EU citizens feel their voice counts in the EU, according to Eurobarometer.
Crisis Management:
Energy prices in the EU increased by 41.5% in 2022, causing significant hardship for citizens and businesses.
Looking Ahead: Key Priorities and Targets
For a successful second mandate, von der Leyen must address these challenges and criticisms. Key priorities should include:
Strengthening Democracy: Aim to increase trust in EU institutions to 50% by 2029.
Economic Resilience: Target a reduction in economic disparities, aiming for a Gini coefficient of 28 across the EU by 2029.
Climate Action: Accelerate emissions reduction to meet or exceed the 55% target by 2030.
Digital Transformation: Increase the percentage of Europeans with basic digital skills to 70% by 2029.
Geopolitical Influence: Enhance the EU's strategic autonomy, aiming for 60% of critical raw materials to be sourced within the EU by 2030.
Social Cohesion: Reduce youth unemployment to below 10% across all EU member states by 2029.
Innovation Leadership: Increase R&D spending to 3.5% of EU GDP by 2029, up from the current 2.3%.
The success of von der Leyen's potential second term – and indeed, the future direction of the European project – hinges on her ability to navigate these complex challenges while addressing persistent criticisms.
As Europe faces a crucial juncture in its history, von der Leyen's leadership will play a pivotal role in shaping the continent's trajectory in an increasingly turbulent world.
The data presented underscores both the magnitude of the challenges and the potential for transformative change under decisive leadership.
While Ursula von der Leyen's tenure has seen some notable achievements, particularly in crisis response, the data paints a picture of a mandate that has struggled to deliver on many of its key promises.
From climate action to digital transformation, rule of law to economic convergence, progress has often been slower than anticipated or promised.
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