The Rise of George Simion and the AUR: A Political Science Analysis of Romania’s 2025 Presidential Election

Introduction

The first round of Romania’s presidential election rerun on May 4, 2025, marked a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape.

George Simion, the 38-year-old leader of the hard-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), emerged as the frontrunner with approximately 41% of the vote, setting the stage for a runoff against centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan on May 18.

This election, closely watched by European and global observers, is a litmus test for the rise of populist, nationalist, and eurosceptic movements within the European Union (EU). Simion’s ascent from a fringe ultranationalist activist to a leading presidential contender reflects broader trends in European politics, including the resurgence of far-right ideologies, anti-establishment sentiment, and the influence of transnational political alignments, such as the U.S.-based MAGA movement.

This academic blog post provides a comprehensive political science analysis of Simion’s rise, the AUR’s ideological framework, and the implications of the 2025 Romanian presidential election for Romania, the EU, and NATO.

Drawing on theories of populism, nationalism, and democratic backsliding, the analysis examines the structural, cultural, and geopolitical factors that have propelled Simion and the AUR to prominence.

The post is structured as follows:

(1) a theoretical framework for understanding far-right populism;

(2) a biography and ideological profile of George Simion and the AUR;

(3) the political context of the 2025 election;

(4) an analysis of Simion’s electoral success; (5) the implications for Romania’s domestic and foreign policy; and (6) broader consequences for European and transatlantic politics.

The conclusion reflects on the challenges and opportunities for Romania’s democratic institutions in the face of rising far-right nationalism.

Theoretical Framework: Understanding Far-Right Populism

To analyze Simion’s rise, we must situate it within the broader theoretical literature on far-right populism.

Populism, as defined by Mudde and Rovira Kaltwasser (2017), is a “thin-centered ideology” that pits a virtuous “people” against a corrupt “elite” while emphasizing the sovereignty of the popular will.

Far-right populism, in particular, combines this anti-elitist narrative with nativism, authoritarianism, and a rejection of liberal democratic norms (Mudde, 2007).

Nativism emphasizes the prioritization of the “native” population over minorities and immigrants, while authoritarianism manifests in a preference for strong leadership and centralized control.

These elements are evident in Simion’s rhetoric, which frames Romania’s political establishment as betraying the “Romanian people” and seeks to restore national sovereignty against external influences, such as the EU and NATO.

The success of far-right populist movements can be explained through a combination of demand-side and supply-side factors (Rydgren, 2007).

Demand-side factors include socio-economic grievances, cultural anxieties, and distrust in institutions, which create fertile ground for populist mobilization.

In Romania, persistent economic inequality, corruption scandals, and disillusionment with EU integration have fueled public discontent.

Supply-side factors, meanwhile, involve the strategies and organizational capacities of populist actors.

Simion’s AUR has adeptly leveraged social media, anti-establishment rhetoric, and alliances with international far-right figures to amplify its message.

Furthermore, the concept of “democratic backsliding” (Bermeo, 2016) is critical to understanding the risks posed by Simion’s potential presidency.

Democratic backsliding involves the gradual erosion of democratic norms, such as checks and balances, judicial independence, and media freedom, often under the guise of populist reforms.

Simion’s vows to appoint controversial figures like Călin Georgescu and his threats to defy EU laws suggest a potential trajectory toward illiberal governance, akin to Hungary under Viktor Orbán or Poland under the Law and Justice (PiS) party.

Finally, the transnational dimension of far-right populism is crucial.

Simion’s alignment with Donald Trump’s MAGA movement and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni reflects a growing network of far-right actors who share ideological affinities and strategic playbooks (Caiani & Kröll, 2017).

This transnationalism amplifies the AUR’s legitimacy and provides Simion with symbolic and material support, as seen in his interactions with figures like Steve Bannon and Jack Posobiec.

George Simion and the AUR: A Biographical and Ideological Profile

George Simion, born on September 21, 1986, in Focșani, Romania, is a polarizing figure whose trajectory from ultranationalist activist to presidential frontrunner encapsulates the AUR’s rapid rise.

Simion’s academic background in history, earned at the University of Bucharest and Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, shaped his early activism, particularly his advocacy for the unification of Romania and Moldova.

This irredentist ideology, which seeks to restore Romania’s pre-World War II borders, has been a cornerstone of his political identity.

His involvement in street protests, including the Action 2012 campaign and the Centenary March, established him as a charismatic and disruptive figure, often at odds with authorities in Moldova and Ukraine, where he has been banned for nationalist activities.

Simion founded the AUR in 2019 after an unsuccessful bid for the European Parliament.

The party’s platform is built on four pillars: family, nation, Christian faith, and liberty.

These resonate with socially conservative voters, particularly young, urban men in economically precarious situations and the Romanian diaspora in Western Europe (Mihai & Ungureanu, 2024).

The AUR’s ideology blends ultranationalism, euroscepticism, and anti-elitism, with a strong emphasis on Orthodox Christian values and opposition to progressive policies, such as same-sex marriage and minority rights.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the AUR capitalized on anti-science sentiment, opposing lockdowns and vaccines, which boosted its support among disillusioned voters.

Simion’s self-proclaimed “Trumpist” orientation is central to his appeal. His admiration for Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni reflects a desire to emulate their brand of populist nationalism, which combines economic protectionism, cultural conservatism, and skepticism of multilateral institutions.

Simion’s rhetoric, often delivered through social media and direct-to-camera speeches, mirrors Trump’s confrontational style, as seen in his pledge to “reclaim our country from the scoundrels” and his theatrical stunts, such as walking out of a televised debate with flowers for a rival candidate.

However, Simion’s relationship with Russia and Ukraine is complex and controversial. While he has denounced Vladimir Putin as a war criminal, his opposition to military aid for Ukraine and his party’s vote against a law allowing Romania to shoot down Russian drones suggest a reluctance to fully align with Western security priorities.

His bans from Ukraine and Moldova, coupled with allegations of “anti-Ukrainian activities,” raise questions about his foreign policy orientation, despite his claims of being “pro-Romanian” rather than pro-Russian.

Political Context: The 2025 Presidential Election Rerun

The 2025 presidential election rerun was triggered by the annulment of the November 2024 election, which was voided by Romania’s Constitutional Court amid allegations of Russian interference and campaign fraud favoring far-right candidate Călin Georgescu.

Georgescu, a nationalist with pro-Russian leanings, had surged from obscurity to win the first round with 22.9%, a result that shocked Romania’s pro-Western establishment.

The court’s decision, backed by declassified intelligence documents, sparked outrage among far-right supporters, who, led by Simion, framed it as a “coup d’état” orchestrated by the political elite.

The annulment, coupled with Georgescu’s disqualification, created a political vacuum that Simion deftly exploited.

Romania’s political landscape in 2025 is characterized by fragmentation and polarization.

The ruling coalition, comprising the Social Democratic Party (PSD), National Liberal Party (PNL), and Democratic Alliance of Hungarians (UDMR), has struggled to maintain public trust amid corruption scandals and economic challenges.

The coalition’s candidate, Crin Antonescu, a veteran politician, secured only 20.34% in the first round, reflecting voter fatigue with establishment figures.

Nicușor Dan, an independent and anti-corruption advocate, emerged as a surprise contender, overtaking Antonescu with 20.89% of the vote, largely due to support from urban and diaspora voters.

The election rerun also unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions. Romania, a NATO and EU member bordering Ukraine, has been a key supporter of Kyiv, donating a Patriot air defense system, training Ukrainian pilots, and facilitating grain exports through its Black Sea port of Constanța.

However, public resentment over financial support for Ukrainian refugees, coupled with frustration over Romania’s delayed full integration into the Schengen zone, has fueled nationalist sentiment, which Simion has skillfully harnessed.

Analyzing Simion’s Electoral Success

Simion’s commanding performance in the first round, with 41% of the vote, can be attributed to a combination of structural, strategic, and contextual factors:

1. Anti-Establishment Sentiment: Romania’s post-communist transition has been marred by corruption, inequality, and unfulfilled promises of EU integration.

2. Simion’s narrative of a “stolen” election in 2024 and his portrayal of the establishment as betraying the “Romanian people” resonated with voters disillusioned with the PSD-PNL coalition.

3. His ability to channel public anger, particularly among the working-class diaspora and young voters, mirrors the success of other far-right populists in Europe (Miscoiu, 2025).

4. Social Media and Grassroots Mobilization: The AUR’s mastery of social media, particularly platforms like TikTok and YouTube, has allowed Simion to bypass traditional media and connect directly with voters.

5. His emotionally charged, direct-to-camera speeches and viral stunts, such as the debate walkout, have amplified his visibility. The party’s strong support among the Romanian diaspora in Italy (77%) and Spain (80%) underscores its effective online outreach (Mihai, 2025).

6. Capitalizing on Georgescu’s Disqualification: Simion positioned himself as the heir to Georgescu’s ultranationalist movement, vowing to appoint him to a top role, possibly as prime minister.

7. This strategy consolidated far-right voters, including those who felt “humiliated” by the election annulment, as evidenced by pensioner Aurelia’s comment: “George Simion equals Călin Georgescu, he gets my vote” (Al Jazeera, 2025).

8. Transnational Far-Right Support: Simion’s alignment with Trump’s MAGA movement and European far-right leaders like Meloni and Marine Le Pen has bolstered his legitimacy. His visits to Washington, interviews with Bannon and Posobiec, and endorsements from figures like Santiago Abascal of Spain’s Vox party have positioned him as part of a global populist wave, enhancing his appeal among voters seeking a “strong” leader (Simion, 2025).

9. Cultural and Religious Appeal: The AUR’s emphasis on Orthodox Christian values, traditional family structures, and national pride resonates with socially conservative voters, particularly in rural areas and among the diaspora.

10. Simion’s public displays of religiosity, such as carrying a holy icon during campaigning, reinforce his image as a defender of Romanian identity.

However, Simion’s success is not without vulnerabilities. His polarizing rhetoric and associations with controversial figures like Georgescu may alienate moderate voters in the runoff.

Moreover, his euroscepticism and opposition to aid for Ukraine could raise concerns among Romania’s urban, pro-Western electorate, who may rally behind Nicușor Dan as a bulwark against far-right governance.

Implications for Romania’s Domestic and Foreign Policy

A Simion presidency would have profound implications for Romania’s domestic and foreign policy, potentially reshaping its role within the EU and NATO.

Domestic Policy

1. Democratic Backsliding: Simion’s rhetoric, including his call to “flay” opponents and his threats to defy EU laws, suggests a propensity for authoritarian governance. As president, he could leverage his powers to appoint loyalists to key positions, such as the prime minister, chief judges, and secret service heads, undermining judicial independence and institutional checks. His pledge to appoint Georgescu, a figure under investigation for promoting fascist groups, raises further concerns about democratic erosion.

2. Social Polarization: The AUR’s socially conservative agenda, including its opposition to minority rights and progressive policies, could exacerbate tensions in Romania’s diverse society. The party’s alleged recruitment of neo-Nazis, as uncovered by PressOne, and Simion’s involvement in ethnically charged incidents, such as the Valea Uzului cemetery dispute, suggest a risk of heightened ethnic and social conflict (Mihai, 2025).

3. Economic Policy: Simion’s economic nationalism, including his call to renationalize OMV Petrom, could deter foreign investment and disrupt Romania’s energy sector, which is poised to become a net gas exporter. His focus on “Romania First” policies may also strain relations with the EU, potentially jeopardizing access to recovery funds.

Foreign Policy

1. EU Relations: Simion’s euroscepticism, while tempered by his insistence on remaining in the EU, could position Romania as a disruptive force in Brussels, akin to Hungary or Slovakia. His threats to break EU laws and his vision of a “reformed” Europe free of “unelected bureaucrats” align with the rhetoric of Orbán and Robert Fico, potentially complicating EU decision-making on issues like Ukraine and climate policy.

2. NATO and Ukraine: Simion’s opposition to military aid for Ukraine and his ambiguous stance on NATO’s role in the region could destabilize Romania’s position on NATO’s eastern flank. While he has expressed support for NATO under “American leadership,” his reluctance to confront Russian aggression directly, as seen in the AUR’s drone law vote, raises doubts about his commitment to collective defense. A Simion presidency could weaken Romania’s role as a reliable partner in supporting Ukraine, particularly in areas like grain exports and pilot training.

3. Regional Relations: Simion’s irredentist rhetoric regarding Moldova and parts of Ukraine and Bulgaria risks straining relations with neighboring countries. His bans from Moldova and Ukraine reflect the sensitivity of his unification agenda, which could provoke diplomatic crises if pursued aggressively.

Broader Consequences for European and Transatlantic Politics

The Romanian election is a microcosm of broader trends in European and transatlantic politics, with implications for the EU, NATO, and the global far-right movement.

1. The Far-Right Surge in Europe: Simion’s success adds to the growing cohort of eurosceptic leaders in the EU, including Orbán, Fico, and Meloni. A Simion presidency would embolden far-right parties across the continent, from France’s National Rally to Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, potentially shifting the EU’s political center of gravity toward nationalism and populism.

2. NATO’s Eastern Flank: Romania’s strategic importance as a NATO member bordering Ukraine makes Simion’s potential presidency a concern for the alliance. A shift toward isolationism or ambivalence on Ukraine could weaken NATO’s cohesion, particularly as the Trump administration’s foreign policy priorities remain uncertain.

3. Transnational Far-Right Networks: Simion’s alignment with MAGA and European far-right figures underscores the growing interconnectedness of populist movements. This transnationalism facilitates the exchange of strategies, funding, and media support, amplifying the far-right’s influence globally. The endorsements from figures like JD Vance and Marine Le Pen highlight Romania’s election as a cause célèbre for the global right.

4. Democratic Resilience: The Romanian case tests the resilience of democratic institutions in the face of populist challenges. The Constitutional Court’s annulment of the 2024 election, while controversial, demonstrated a commitment to safeguarding electoral integrity against alleged foreign interference. The runoff on May 18 will determine whether Romania’s pro-Western electorate can mobilize to counter Simion’s momentum.

Conclusion

George Simion’s emergence as the frontrunner in Romania’s 2025 presidential election rerun is a testament to the potency of far-right populism in a context of economic grievance, cultural anxiety, and institutional distrust.

His AUR party, with its blend of ultranationalism, euroscepticism, and Trumpist rhetoric, has capitalized on Romania’s political turmoil to position itself as a formidable force.

The runoff against Nicușor Dan will be a referendum on Romania’s future: a choice between integration with the EU and NATO or a lurch toward isolationism and illiberalism.

From a political science perspective, Simion’s rise underscores the interplay of demand-side and supply-side factors in fueling populist movements.

His success also highlights the transnational nature of contemporary far-right politics, with implications for Romania’s domestic stability, its role in the EU and NATO, and the broader trajectory of European democracy.

As Romania approaches the May 18 runoff, the stakes could not be higher. A Simion victory risks democratic backsliding and geopolitical realignment, while a Dan win could reaffirm Romania’s pro-Western orientation.

Regardless of the outcome, the 2025 election marks a critical juncture in Romania’s post-communist journey, with reverberations far beyond its borders.